The 2024 harvest season in England has been one of the most difficult in recent history. A combination of adverse weather conditions, primarily driven by climate change, has led to significant declines in key crop yields, sparking concerns about the resilience of the UK’s food system. While some crops showed resilience, overall performance across the sector has been underwhelming, marking one of the worst harvests in decades. This article provides a detailed analysis of the harvest outcomes, factors contributing to the poor yields, and future forecasts for the industry.
Key Highlights from the 2024 Harvest
- Wheat production: Down 22% from 2023, reaching just 10.0 million tonnes.
- Barley output: Increased by 2.7%, driven by a rise in spring barley yields.
- Oats production: Saw a 20% increase in yield, while oilseed rape suffered a significant 33% decline.
Wheat Production: The Worst Since 2020
Wheat is the backbone of English arable farming, but the 2024 harvest has dealt a severe blow. This year, wheat production dropped to 10.0 million tonnes, a decrease of 22% from the previous year. The primary cause for this dramatic fall is rooted in the wet conditions of autumn 2023, which hampered planting efforts. This led to an 11% reduction in the wheat growing area. Additionally, the yield per hectare fell by 12%, reaching only 7.1 tonnes per hectare, which is well below the five-year average.
Barley and Oats: A Mixed Bag
Unlike wheat, barley showed some resilience. Overall production increased by 2.7%, largely due to a surge in spring barley. Spring barley output soared by 41%, while winter barley production plummeted by 26%. Spring barley benefitted from improved yields, which rose by 10% to 5.6 tonnes per hectare, alongside a 28% expansion in the planting area. These gains were observed across all regions, though the yield remains slightly below the long-term average.
Oats have been a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy harvest. Production rose by 20% to 773,000 tonnes, with yields averaging 5.2 tonnes per hectare. Regional differences were stark, with Yorkshire and the Humber reporting the highest average yields at 6.3 tonnes per hectare, compared to just 4.6 tonnes per hectare in the South West.
Oilseed Rape: A Continued Decline
Oilseed rape, already struggling in recent years, saw one of the sharpest declines in 2024. Production fell by 33% to 687,000 tonnes, driven by a 29% reduction in planting area and a nearly 8% drop in yields. This downturn continues a worrying trend for oilseed rape, which has faced multiple challenges in recent years, including pest pressures and the phasing out of neonicotinoid pesticides.
Climate Change: The Key Culprit
Experts point to climate change as the driving force behind this year’s disappointing harvest. Last year’s extremely wet autumn and winter prevented timely planting for many cereal crops. In July 2024, further disruptions were caused by record rainfall, which severely impacted crop development. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) warned that these weather patterns, exacerbated by climate change, are becoming more frequent, posing an ongoing threat to UK food security.
The impact of climate change was particularly evident in the oilseed rape and wheat sectors. Warmer, drier conditions in early August provided some relief, but the overall damage had already been done during the earlier months of excessive rainfall.
Regional Variations in Yields
While the overall picture of the 2024 harvest is bleak, there were notable regional differences. For example:
- Yorkshire and the Humber reported higher-than-average oat yields, reaching 6.3 tonnes per hectare.
- South West England, on the other hand, struggled with oats, reporting an average yield of only 4.6 tonnes per hectare.
- The East of England saw some improvement in barley yields, particularly spring barley, while wheat yields remained below the national average.
Comparative Analysis: 2023 vs. 2024
| Crop Type | 2023 Yield (t/ha) | 2024 Yield (t/ha) | % Change | 2023 Production (Million Tonnes) | 2024 Production (Million Tonnes) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 8.1 | 7.1 | -12% | 12.9 | 10.0 | -22% |
| Winter Barley | 6.3 | 5.6 | -10% | 3.2 | 2.4 | -26% |
| Spring Barley | 5.1 | 5.6 | +10% | 1.7 | 2.5 | +41% |
| Oats | 4.8 | 5.2 | +8.5% | 645 | 773 | +20% |
| Oilseed Rape | 3.0 | 2.8 | -7.9% | 1.0 | 0.7 | -33% |
Long-Term Forecast and Industry Outlook
Looking ahead, the outlook for the English farming sector remains uncertain. The 2024 harvest underscores the vulnerability of UK agriculture to climate extremes. Industry experts warn that without significant adaptation measures, such as investing in climate-resilient crop varieties and improved drainage systems, these issues could worsen.
Tom Lancaster, a farming analyst at the ECIU, stressed that unless the UK accelerates its efforts to reduce carbon emissions and invest in sustainable farming practices, extreme weather patterns will continue to challenge food production. This sentiment was echoed in recent parliamentary debates, where MPs called for an increased agricultural budget to help farmers cope with these new realities.
The forecast for 2025 remains cautious. Some regions are already seeing challenges in autumn planting due to continued wet conditions. Early predictions suggest that if current weather patterns persist, yields could be similarly affected next year, putting further strain on domestic food supply.
Conclusion
The 2024 harvest in England has been one of the most challenging in decades. With wheat production at its lowest since 2020 and oilseed rape continuing its decline, the sector faces ongoing pressures from both environmental and economic factors. However, the resilience shown by spring barley and oats offers some hope for future adaptation. To mitigate the effects of climate change, it will be critical for policymakers and farmers alike to focus on sustainability and innovation, ensuring the long-term viability of the UK's agricultural sector.
References
- GOV.UK, "Provisional cereal and oilseed production estimates for England 2024" (GOV.UK).
- Farmers Weekly, "MPs debate food security and future agricultural budget" (Farmers Weekly).
- The Independent, "Analysis suggests this year’s harvest in England was one of worst for decades" (The Independent).
- GOV.UK, "Biggest upgrade to UK farming schemes introduced" (GOV.UK).
- Farmers Guide, "Latest farming news and industry insights" (Farmers Guide).