Spring 2025 has etched its mark as one of the most challenging seasons for UK agriculture in recent memory. Record-breaking warmth and sunshine, coupled with unprecedented dryness, have created a perfect storm of conditions that threaten crop yields, strain water resources, and underscore the urgent need for climate resilience in farming practices.

Record-Breaking Weather Patterns

According to the Met Office, Spring 2025 has been the warmest and sunniest on record for the UK, with all four nations recording their highest mean temperatures since records began in 1884. The UK experienced a mean temperature of 9.5°C, surpassing the long-term average by 1.4°C. Sunshine hours totalled 653.3, 43% above average, making it the sunniest spring since records began.

Rainfall was notably scarce, with only 80.6mm recorded across the UK, marking it as the driest spring in over a century. England's February to April period was its driest since 1956, raising alarms across the farming community.

Agricultural Impacts

Wheat Production Forecasts
Despite the challenging weather, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) forecasts a rise in UK wheat production for 2025. An estimated 12.5 million tonnes are expected, up from 11.1 million tonnes in 2024, based on an increased planted area of 1.6 million hectares and an average yield of 7.8 tonnes per hectare.

Irrigation Challenges
The Environment Agency's updated prospects for irrigation across England for 2025 have been downgraded from "Good" to "Good to Moderate" due to below-average rainfall in late February, March, and April. This shift raises concerns about water availability for crops during critical growth periods.

Water Resource Management

Reservoir Levels and Drought Declarations
By late April, reservoir storage across England dropped to 84%, lower than during the 2022 drought. The Environment Agency has declared a drought in northwest England, allowing water companies to implement water-saving measures such as hosepipe bans.

Government Initiatives
In response to escalating drought risks, the Environment Agency has launched a £1.1 million programme to fund Local Resource Options (LROs) across England. These studies will assess water security on farms, exploring solutions like multi-farm reservoirs and treated wastewater recycling. The top recommendations could provide an additional 12 billion litres of low-cost water annually to farmers.

Market Dynamics

Wheat Prices and EU Influence
UK feed wheat futures for November 2025 have seen fluctuations, recently closing at £178.20 per tonne, influenced by global market trends and weather forecasts. The EU's wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecasted to be 13.6% lower than the previous year, marking a third consecutive year of tightening supply. This situation could influence UK wheat prices, especially if adverse weather affects EU yields.

Recommendations for Farmers

  1. Water Management: Invest in efficient irrigation systems and consider collaborative water storage solutions to mitigate the impact of drought conditions.

  2. Crop Diversification: Explore drought-resistant crop varieties and diversify planting to reduce risk.

  3. Soil Health: Implement practices that improve soil moisture retention, such as cover cropping and reduced tillage.

  4. Stay Informed: Regularly consult updates from the Environment Agency and the Met Office to make informed decisions based on the latest weather and water resource forecasts.

The extreme conditions of Spring 2025 serve as a stark reminder of the challenges posed by climate change to UK agriculture. Proactive measures and adaptive strategies are essential to ensure the resilience and sustainability of farming in the face of such unprecedented weather patterns.

 

UK Agriculture Spring 2025

Climate Extremes, Agricultural Resilience, and Market Dynamics

Weather Extremes Comparison
Water Resource Decline
Wheat Production Paradox
Regional Temperature Records
Rainfall Deficit Analysis (1956-2025)
Climate Impact Flow: From Weather to Markets

Weather Extremes

+1.4°C above average
43% more sunshine
Driest spring in century

→

Water Crisis

84% reservoir levels
Irrigation downgraded
Northwest drought declared

→

Agricultural Response

12.5M tonnes wheat forecast
+12.6% production increase
Despite water stress

→

Market Dynamics

£178.20/tonne
EU supply tightening
Global price volatility

Key Analytical Insight

The data reveals a fascinating paradox: despite experiencing the most severe drought conditions in over a century, UK wheat production is forecast to increase by 12.6%. This counterintuitive outcome demonstrates how modern agricultural practices, improved seed varieties, and strategic planting decisions can partially offset adverse weather conditions. However, this resilience comes at the cost of increased water stress and long-term sustainability concerns, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive farming strategies in an era of climate volatility.

References

  1. Met Office: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/double-record-breaker-spring-2025-is-warmest-and-sunniest-on-uk-record

  2. The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/16/weather-tracker-dry-spring-in-northern-europe-sets-off-drought-warnings

  3. Farmers Weekly: https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/markets-and-trends/crop-prices/larger-uk-wheat-production-area-forecast-for-2025

  4. Farming Advice Service: https://www.farmingadviceservice.org.uk/technical-article/updated-prospects-irrigation-area-forecasts-2025-0

  5. The Times: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drought-north-west-england-ktqtn88n0

  6. The Sun: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/35189910/uk-drought-lost-village-emerges

  7. GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-funds-scheme-to-tackle-on-farm-drought-risk

  8. AHDB: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/arable-market-report-02-june-2025

  9. AHDB: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/what-does-a-tight-eu-wheat-balance-mean-for-uk-prices-grain-market-daily